Day after day, the run-up to the General Elections 2019 is getting closing with an escalated anticipation on the Prime Minister Narendra Modi-led Bhartiya Janata Party (BJP) winning the Lok Sabha Elections. The wave of bullishness or bearishness in the Indian stock markets will likely be steered by the outcome of 2019 elections. According to a research report by Gautam Chhaochharia, Head, India Research and Sanjena Dadawala, Analyst, UBS Securities India, the key local factor for Indian markets over next 12 months will be markets’ perception of ‘Will Modi win in 2019?’.
UBS Securities report said that Modi winning 2019 is being priced in, however, the government’s political economy stance into the elections will be a key driver of the relative performance of sector or stock.
According to the report, the stocks exposed to the rural sector and economy should continue to do well irrespective of whether the rural or agriculture tilt is just real or rhetoric. The upside projection for the benchmark Nifty 50 index for the calendar year 2018 has been set about 10.8% higher at 11,900 as compared to the current level of 10,741 while in the downside scenario, Nifty may see a level of 8,800, down by 18% from the same level. “Our end-2018 Nifty base/ upside/downside scenarios of 10,500/11,900/8,800 imply an unattractive risk-reward for the market overall,” UBS Securities said in a research note.
Taking a sharp depreciation of the INR against the US dollar into consideration, UBS Securities report suggests that any major populism or stimulus would likely drive bond yields higher and possibly hurt the currency.
Following the sectoral positioning for India, UBS Securities India is overweight on auto parts, IT services, private banks, property, telecom and media and underweight on cement, industrial/infrastructure and small & mid-cap. While, on the other hand, UBS Securities is neutral on auto OEMs (original equipment manufacturers), metals and mining, public sector banks, NBFCs (Non-Banking Finance Corporations), power utilities, oil and gas.
“While the first 3-3.5 years of the Modi-led BJP government’s term saw a number of reforms and politically tough steps (currency demonetisation, GST implementation, bankruptcy code, real estate regulator), the run-up to elections is unlikely to see any big bang measures,” UBS Securities added.
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